Climate-Oceans Emergency Response
CLIMATE SYSTEM EMERGENCY INSTITUTE
PROTECT THE LAND CARBON SINK
STOP DEEP SEA TRAWLING
PROTECT THE OCEAN CARBON SINK
Personal living. It is a given that all in the Global North must convert their wasteful consumer culture to conserver culture. That can never get us anywhere near zero carbon, and in fact allows more fossil fuel globalization. It is still essential because the more energy we conserve the faster we can make the fossil fuel zero conversion.
Energy/power DENSITY Fossil fuel conversion can be done for domestic electricity, but not yet for heavy manufacturing and heavy transport, which requires very high energy dense power (presently mostly fossil fuels, with some big dam hydro and some nuclear fission). Wind turbines today are being made by burning coal. This is not being taken into account. The exception is concentrated solar thermal with molten salt heat storage, which is high energy but much less than fission.
Getting to zero carbon fast can only be done using very high energy dense compact reactor nuclear fission power on the way to super high energy dense compact fusion power, in order to manufacture the vast amount of clean renewable infrastructure to rebuild the world for zero carbon.
It is not appreciated that methane and nitrous oxide must be zeroed, as well as CO2, although IPCC AR6 did address methane. The essential conversions for methane and nitrous oxide mitigation as well as CO2
The zero carbon combustion world energy economy is the safest, clearest,surest and most feasible carbon conversion / decarbonization
Energy austerity and veganism
Atmospheric CO2 is now so high (420 ppm) that avoiding global land and oceans collapse can only result from a huge decrease is energy consumption, which means energy and manufactured goods austerity. As it is phased down fossil fuel energy must be dedicated to renewable energy manufacturing. Atmospheric methane is so high that global veganisation is essential. The world population increase is now contributing to increased emissions, so population must be zeroed and then declined to one child families.
Black carbon & methane. (IPCC 1.5C Report confirms) With global warming now 1.1C, and predicted (UN Met Office) to increase to 2022, a strategy for survival requires rapid reduction in the rapidly responding global warming of black carbon (BC) soot (2nd only to CO2 for warming) and methane. Cutting BC would act immediately and cutting methane would act in a few years as methane lasts a decade. In contrast CO2 emissions last 100-20 years (CDIAC rough average). This is in addition to immediate rapid global decline in CO2 emissions. Cutting methane means cutting out meat.
All sources (2017) on climate change mitigation agree than global emissions must decline on
an immediate basis to keep under 1.5°C and 2C by 2100, which would be much higher long by equilibrium after 2100. 2C equilibrium is global suicide as it would trigger planet feedback carbon catastrophe runaway, and world agricultural output decline and ocean catastrophe. The consensus now (since UN Paris Agreement) is a long term aim for under 1.5C.
The 2011 IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation noted that 'The global technical potential of RE sources will not limit continued growth in the use of RE. ...studies have consistently found that the total global technical potential for RE is substantially higher than global energy demand. The technical potential for solar energy is the highest among the RE sources, but substantial technical potential exists for all six RE sources'.
26 Oct 2019 by Morgan Stanley report , found that to reduce net carbon emissions to zero and meet the Paris Agreement’s goal, the world would have to eliminate 53.5 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide each year for the catastrophic 2C, requiring $50Trillon by 2050 CO2 removal (CDR) We are opposed in principle to geoengineering for planet cooling and for CO2 removal except direct air capture. Latest research was published by Environmental Research Letters 2018 Special issue Focus on Negative Emissions, According to the IPCC 2014 AR5 global emissions reduction has been delayed for so long that '-ve emissions' or CO2 removal is now required. The 2018 IPCC 1.5C report's best case P1 scenario has no CCS nor CO2 removal, but the report assumes CO2 removal is feasible-today it is not. Non geoengineering safe effective CDR includes regenerative agriculture, biochar, afforestation and wood construction in place of steel & concrete. CDR geo-engineering methods are not mature technologies and all sources conclude their practical value at scale to be questionable. The most published CDR method is bioenergy + carbon capture sequestration (BECCS). There are potential direct air capture technologies (DAC) but the IPCC treats these as too expensive. Many IPCC reports address CDR. The IPCC 2007 AR4 WG3 included CDR in equilibrium warming of 2C. 2011 IPCC Expert Meeting on Geoengineering. IPCC 2014 AR5b WG 3 SPM says: The availability and scale of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies and methods are uncertain and CDR technologies and methods are, associated with challenges and risks (high confidence). Springer in 2013 published a special issue on -ve emissions. The most comprehensive IPCC 2014 AR5 BECCS assessment is WG3 11.13 Appendix Bioenergy.Recent 2017 review shows that even after many years of consideration CDR has made no real progress. The most recent report,(Feb 2018) is on the UN Climate Sec site by the European Academies Science Advisory Council, which does not support BECCS and concludes 'these technologies offer only limited realistic potential to remove carbon from the atmosphere' .. 'and not at the levels required to compensate for inadequate mitigation'. The really bad news is research finding that CDR is of little to no help for the ocean disruption. CDR theoretical potentials have been published nevertheless. All methods need to to be tried as part of the planetary emergency response but assumed effectiveness should not be relied for mitigation policy. Despite being included in many models and mitigation papers, it therefore remains unknown if CCS, BECCS or DAC are feasible and we have to assume will not stop ocean heating, acidification and deoxygenation. As the oceans are the ultimate determinant of climate this makes the Earth emergency doubly dire. We need a planet emergency global massive Manhattan model project.
Massive Manhattan-Apollo- Marshall project. The more today's unprecedented atmospheric GHG pollution is studied the more impossible it seems to now prevent planetary catastrophe. It is now become a 'mission impossible' situation that requires nothing less than an immediate planetary emergency massive international Manhattan-Marshall type venture to rebuild our world. Dec 2016 Prof. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber.
Global surface temperature and atmospheric CO2 for 2015 and for 2016 were big record highs and record annual increases.
Atmospheric CO2 is accelerating to the end of 2016 even though there was no increase in CO2 emissions for 2014 and 2015. Ocean acidification and heat content are accelerating.
Obviously there is no allowable carbon budget to burn more fossil fuels in this most perilous situation. Clearly the whole world is on a fast fixed heading for global suicide.The future is the solar age- or no future, if the fossil fuel industry is allowed to keep the world dependent on and dominated by fossil fuels.This as been known for decades (The Politics of the Solar Age 1975-2015 Hazel Henderson). The latest science makes this certain 'We Could Power The Entire World By Harnessing Solar Energy From 1% Of The Sahara' (Forbes 22 Sep 2016)- Prof Mehran Moalem, PhD, UC Berkeley.ALL fossil fuel energy must be replaced by clean virtual zero carbon ever lasting energy. That is because of the definite science of zero carbon emissions, without which global temperature and ocean acidification cannot stabilize (onlyzerocarbon.org).Renewable energy can repower the world according to the IPCC in its 2011 renewable energy report that all fossil fuel energy could be replaced by renewable energies, for an investment of 1% of global GDP or $5 over the next decade. This is the same as governments have been giving to the fossil fuel industries in subsidies (IMF 2015). Best behavioural or life style practices for carbon footprint reductionis a given, well known for many years so not described here, except to say that for methane the meat based diet must be converted.
It is necessary to first emphasize what measures are no part of an emergency response plan, as they are unproven, dangerous, provide an excuse to keep emitting and unnecessary (if emergency emissions cuts are taken):
The Burning Age is over and the only solution to carbon pollution is conversion to a (virtual) zero carbon clean renewable energy economy
- No SRM Planetary geoengineered cooling by atmospheric acid aerosols
- No BECCS Biomass combustion for energy with CCS.
Zero carbon means zero deforestation, plus global afforestation
The UN Paris Agreement is just the opposite- MORE emissions. The May 2016 UN Climate Change Secretariat Update of intended national emissions targets (INDCs) shows that after Paris emissions will still be higher at 2030, and proves that nothing is going to be done to save our future without a global emergency mass climate mobilization.
Our planet is on the brink of runaway climate change - total planetary catastrophe.
We have to convert our industrial GHG polluting world to a non GHG polluting one and fast. An immediate International Planetary Emergency Manhattan Marshall Model Venture(NOT planetary cooling) is now the only survival response — primarily for a big upgrade of our new clean energy technologies and to get safe, zero-combustion, super high energy density safe new fission and hopefully fusion power on line, which is now looking feasible. And we need safe direct air CO2 removal to get near zero CO2 emissions (not by burning biomass). For energy/power density, see Vaclav Smil and IPCC renewable energy report, SREEN.
Food production 30% emissions
From 2012 published research world food production is now responsible for 30% of global GHG emissions. This requires stopping forestation for agricultural land, conversion of the meat heavy diet and of chemical intensive agriculture. Because of unavoidable CO2 emissions from our best food production, the best we do with 100% of energy conversion is virtual zero carbon (90% reduction of CO2 emissions)
OCEAN POWER The Oceans hold vast amounts of high energy dense power, by ocean thermal energy conversion WikiPedia conversion Paper. OCEAN
CONSTRUCTION CONVERSION Buildings world are being constructed of steel and concrete- nothing be be worse fo carbon emissions. Concrete is made by burning limestone- emitting CO2. All construction should and could be made of wood. 17 May 2017 Nature The wooden skyscrapers that could help to cool the planet
Climate Mobilization Emergency City plan e.g. San Francisco by J. Mitchell
UNEP 2019 GLOBAL EMISSIONS MUST DROP 7.6%/ YEAR from 2020
Jan 2020 Mother Jones We Need a Massive Climate War Effort—Now Only major spending on clean energy R&D can save us
The perverse world ECONOMY
2020 Oscar Reyes, Change Finance, not the Climate
The military industrial complex is a huge part of our economy, now reached $2 Trillion/year on world armaments, and the US now over $800 Billion. War is a huge obstacle to international climate cooperation and abandoning fossil fuels. With the prolonged war in Ukraine makes
climate change mitigation more unlikely than ever
Peace must be won, now for the survival of us all The one word that is fundamental to climate change mitigation is
CONVERSION Total Conversion of
Economy the world consumer to conserver economy
War to creative constructive peace
Energy Fossil fuel to 100% clean renewable
Construction Steel & concrete to wood
Agriculture Chemical intensive mechanized to organic regenerative like permaculture
Diet Meat free vegan
Transport from car based (even EV) to zero carbon public seamless transport
High energy dense green hydrogen power is a component of the zero carbon economy
VIDEO 2021. IPCC Chair H. Lee at UN COP 26 says Globalemissions must decline immediately for 1.5°C & 2°C
Assume 3Rs, Reduce Reuse Recycle
The 3Rs is an essential component of a clean energy strategy.
Less use, conservation, efficiency, and community
As determined in 2006 by the UK Stern Commission the root cause of climate change is our perverse all consuming economics - the greatest most far reaching market failure ever.
Carbon tax $75/T IMF, October 2018
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WE HAVE NO MORE TIME
Today (2023) global emissions are higher than ever and still increasing.
For years the IPCC and climate science have said global emissions must be decline by 2020 at the very latest. The 2007 AR4 had 2015 as the time limit for 2°CThe 2018 IPPC 1.5°C Report and UNEP called for halving emissions reduction by 2030The IPCC AR6 (WG3) called for IMMEDIATE rapid reduction in global emissions.
The IPCC has made it clear that fossil fuel combustion must end. Mitigation "pathways
would require substantial emissions reductions over the next few decades and near zero emissions of carbon dioxide and other
To "secure a liveable future" emissions have to decline "immediately" (IPCC AR6)
Our survival depends on this
A carbon budget is now meaningless
Incredibly this survival message of immediacy has not got out, and is not being put out, even by the scientists.
All it requires to get started in the right direction is the immediate unconditional termination of all fossil fuel and all other GHG polluting subsidies by governments. The IMF puts total world fossil fuel at nearly $6 Trillion/year
Emissions will keep increasing otherwise, which means unprecedented ever increasing hardship and suffering, and the end of the world for humanity.Citizens have to oppose big economy governments, big fossil fuel corporations and big banks that are determined to keep the world dependant on fossil fuels, which is an unprecedented evil. Governments also have to charge the polluting corporations the full cost of their pollution.
And there must be a hefty wealth tax. The richest 10 percent accounted for over half (52 percent) of the emissions(2020 OXFAM)Surprisingly there is only detailed calculated plan by an relevant institution and that is the IEA International Energy Agency Net Zero Emissions by 2050 plan
ZERO CARBON COMBUSTION Just net zero emissions means nothing. It has to be by zero fossil fuel combustion and zero carbon combustion (no wood pellet/biomass power production, no biofuels, no cement-burning limestone)). The fossil industry has to end, replaced by 100% clean renewable energy.
In the past few year Net Zero has taken over the mitigation plans and discussion. Unqualified net zero that even the fossil fuel corporations favour, is another way to delay and keep burning fossil fuels
The 2018 IPCC 1.5°C Report best case P1 had fossil fuel energy production down to near zero by 2050, specified by fuel
The reason there can be no fossil fuel combustion is that stabilization requires zero carbon emissions