Global Climate Change Planetary Emergency
15 May 2018 UN Sec. General says climate change is an 'existential threat' to most life on the planet, including and especially humankind, UN chief warns global summit, and the age of fossil fuels must be ended.
VIDEO of the historic statement by UN Secretary-General António Guterres
3 Aug 2020 Physicists: 90% Chance of Human Society Collapsing Within Decades
Locked in commitment is over 1.5C by 2021 and over 2C at full
equilibrium warming (long after 2100) Jan 2021 research
equilibrium warming (long after 2100) Jan 2021 research
. 11 Dec 202010 myths about net zero targets and carbon offsetting, busted by experts
The June 2021 leaked IPCC report (WG2 Impacts)- disastrous- Text Video
Jan 2021 Close to to tipping point of land carbon sink
28 July 2021 World Scientists’ Warning Climate Emergency 2021
IPCC 2021 6th assessment (AR6) WG1 Science SPM Government approved
April 2021Fossil fuel air pollution kills 10 million/year
14 Sept 2021 Chatham House Risk Widespread severe impacts, crop losses by 2030 if no rapid emissions decline
This is the essential evidence of the global emergency for today's children worldwide, and the future survival of Humanity and most life on Earth.
Mitigation "solutions" can only be appreciated in today's context of globally unprecedented disastrous impacts (1.5C projected by 2030) and end-of-the-world feedback runaway global heating (triggered at 2C, projected by 2050).
The emergency is far worse than the science assessments indicate.
Were it not for the venal climate change denial campaign launched by the fossil fuel industry in 1989, climate change would have been stopped many years ago.
The most important fact is that global emissions have to decline immediately and rapidly (IPCC Chair 2021), now to try to avoid 2C (since 1.5C is now out of reach).
This is to try avoiding biosphere collapse, and applies to all countries.
Provided financing (as the 1992 climate change convention required), developing countries can convert to zero combustion energy a lot easier than the long industrially (fossil fuel) developed. The idea today that justice requires allowing developing countries more time to burn more fossil fuels is counterfactual, because global emissions have to be near zero, and they are most climate change vulnerable.
Without rapid drastic revolutionary change to the world economy, our children "face a bleak future" (word-wide) and "we will be investing in our own extinction" (UN COP 26).
Denying human dangerous climate change or promoting more fossil fuels is an unprecedented crime of all time- against all Humanity
Fighting the legal pleadings by youth groups for effective mitigation by governments is most morally reprehensible.
Fossil fuel air pollution in addition to atmospheric greenhouse pollution, is leading to 10 million deaths a year
Major greenhouse gas sources are the fossil fuel combustion, industrial age food production, with feedbacks treated as major potential additional catastrophic sources.
The single most catastrophic global warming effect is multiple feedback runaway heat, a rapidly increasing risk today with emissions increasing
All amplifying (+ve) feedbacks are operant, runaway is triggered
The climate system alone absolutely commits the world to 1.5C (2030) and to 2C long term equilibrium warming after 2100. The time taken from a global agreement to reverse todays increasing emissions is more commitment.
Extreme weather events, most dangerous climate change impacts to populations and to crops, are increasing- driven by GHG emissions (IPCC)
Global warming and climate change are accelerating J. Hansen, WMO
The 2020 emissions deadline has passed- and the 1.5C limit
James Hansen, global temperature Dec 2021, Jan 2022
Global emissions had to be in decline by 2020 for 1.5C and 2C
Today global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and
atmospheric concentrations are increasing as fast as ever
Current policies lead to 2.8C by 2100 (UNEP 2021)
Globally disastrous 1.5C, harming the lives of 10s of
millions, will be reached around 2030 be prepared
Increasing global emissions are on track, to planet for
Catastrophic 2C will harming the lives of billions
around 2050 (IPCC)
The 2015 Paris Agreement only requires
countries to report their GHG emissions
The UN (COP) climate negotiating process is
set up to fail by countries instructed that
consensus requires total or virtual unanimity
in the voting for major matters.
giving the fossil industry via fossil pushing
counties in effect a veto t rule over serious fossil fuel reduction and phase out
WTO model free-trade agreements put profit over environmental protection and allow corporations power to sue governments (dispute process) in such issues. This is a powerful deterrent to governments acting to protect the environment.
The WTO has to correct this, putting environmental protection above profit
OCEANS
GHG emissions are heating, acidifying and deoxygenating the oceans, at an accelerating rate, a lethal combination for the future of all life.
2C is planet catastrophe: the coral reefs are dead, the Amazon and tropical rainforests have died back (collapsed), most crops yields are declining and runaway feedbacks have been triggered
This includes irreversible self sustaining permafrost thaw (holds 2X atmospheric carbon) , which is emitting feedback methane, CO2 and nitrous oxide (the IPCC classified three main long-lived GHGs)
The 2021 Glasgow COP 26 and rapid post Covid-19 emissions rebound shows governments have no intention of making global emissions decline
To avoid climate catastrophe emissions have to (and can) drop 50% by 2030
Continued current emissions and policies lead to biosphere collapse with climate and oceans catastrophe
The root causes of the global emergency are, the world consumer market economy, government subsidies, investment banks and managers, and consumerism
An urgent new Breton Woods agreement is required to align the world financial and economic systems with the climate emergency, including a "Jubilee" forgiving of national debt to corporate banks.
This will allow the suicidal economics of constant indiscriminate irresponsible economic growth, to change to economic growth limited to climate change mitigation growth only. Rebuilding the world for zero carbon energy as fast as possible would provide a great boost the world economy and employment. Other production has to be zero growth-developing a world industry of reuse and recycle.
Investment and financing in more fossil fuels has to be prohibited.
Since 1990 the richest 10% of the world’s population were responsible for 52% of the cumulative carbon emissions, while The poorest 50% (c.3.1 billion people) were responsible for just 7% of cumulative emissions (OXFAM)
This requires a large wealth GHG pollution tax
The natural gas industry is not a bridge to zero carbon because gas emits CO2 when burnt and the industry is a big methane emitter
Fossil fuels subsidies ($5.9 Trillion a year by IMF) are an unprecedented evil which for the survival of Humanity have to be terminated right away and shifted to non combustion energy development
Tax credits to GHG polluting fossil fuel industries (including carbon capture storage) cannot be permitted.
CO2 and long-lived, constantly emitted GHGs accumulate in the atmosphere, so have to (can) be totally replaced by conversions to non polluting sources-"less" or "lower" is not good enough for climate and ocean stabilization
Conversions include energy production, transport, food production/diet, construction (steel/concrete to wood)
Air transport should revert to water, and ships powered by compact fission reactors like the US Navy (for decades). Only essential air flights.
To stabilize climate and oceans GHG emissions drop to near zero (IPCC 2014)
Planned fossil fuel production by 2030 is more than double the 1.5C limit
Mitigation "solutions" can only be appreciated in today's context of globally unprecedented disastrous impacts (1.5C projected by 2030) and end-of-the-world feedback runaway global heating (triggered at 2C, projected by 2050).
The emergency is far worse than the science assessments indicate.
Were it not for the venal climate change denial campaign launched by the fossil fuel industry in 1989, climate change would have been stopped many years ago.
The most important fact is that global emissions have to decline immediately and rapidly (IPCC Chair 2021), now to try to avoid 2C (since 1.5C is now out of reach).
This is to try avoiding biosphere collapse, and applies to all countries.
Provided financing (as the 1992 climate change convention required), developing countries can convert to zero combustion energy a lot easier than the long industrially (fossil fuel) developed. The idea today that justice requires allowing developing countries more time to burn more fossil fuels is counterfactual, because global emissions have to be near zero, and they are most climate change vulnerable.
Without rapid drastic revolutionary change to the world economy, our children "face a bleak future" (word-wide) and "we will be investing in our own extinction" (UN COP 26).
Denying human dangerous climate change or promoting more fossil fuels is an unprecedented crime of all time- against all Humanity
Fighting the legal pleadings by youth groups for effective mitigation by governments is most morally reprehensible.
Fossil fuel air pollution in addition to atmospheric greenhouse pollution, is leading to 10 million deaths a year
Major greenhouse gas sources are the fossil fuel combustion, industrial age food production, with feedbacks treated as major potential additional catastrophic sources.
The single most catastrophic global warming effect is multiple feedback runaway heat, a rapidly increasing risk today with emissions increasing
All amplifying (+ve) feedbacks are operant, runaway is triggered
The climate system alone absolutely commits the world to 1.5C (2030) and to 2C long term equilibrium warming after 2100. The time taken from a global agreement to reverse todays increasing emissions is more commitment.
Extreme weather events, most dangerous climate change impacts to populations and to crops, are increasing- driven by GHG emissions (IPCC)
Global warming and climate change are accelerating J. Hansen, WMO
The 2020 emissions deadline has passed- and the 1.5C limit
James Hansen, global temperature Dec 2021, Jan 2022
Global emissions had to be in decline by 2020 for 1.5C and 2C
Today global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and
atmospheric concentrations are increasing as fast as ever
Current policies lead to 2.8C by 2100 (UNEP 2021)
Globally disastrous 1.5C, harming the lives of 10s of
millions, will be reached around 2030 be prepared
Increasing global emissions are on track, to planet for
Catastrophic 2C will harming the lives of billions
around 2050 (IPCC)
The 2015 Paris Agreement only requires
countries to report their GHG emissions
The UN (COP) climate negotiating process is
set up to fail by countries instructed that
consensus requires total or virtual unanimity
in the voting for major matters.
giving the fossil industry via fossil pushing
counties in effect a veto t rule over serious fossil fuel reduction and phase out
WTO model free-trade agreements put profit over environmental protection and allow corporations power to sue governments (dispute process) in such issues. This is a powerful deterrent to governments acting to protect the environment.
The WTO has to correct this, putting environmental protection above profit
OCEANS
GHG emissions are heating, acidifying and deoxygenating the oceans, at an accelerating rate, a lethal combination for the future of all life.
2C is planet catastrophe: the coral reefs are dead, the Amazon and tropical rainforests have died back (collapsed), most crops yields are declining and runaway feedbacks have been triggered
This includes irreversible self sustaining permafrost thaw (holds 2X atmospheric carbon) , which is emitting feedback methane, CO2 and nitrous oxide (the IPCC classified three main long-lived GHGs)
The 2021 Glasgow COP 26 and rapid post Covid-19 emissions rebound shows governments have no intention of making global emissions decline
To avoid climate catastrophe emissions have to (and can) drop 50% by 2030
Continued current emissions and policies lead to biosphere collapse with climate and oceans catastrophe
The root causes of the global emergency are, the world consumer market economy, government subsidies, investment banks and managers, and consumerism
An urgent new Breton Woods agreement is required to align the world financial and economic systems with the climate emergency, including a "Jubilee" forgiving of national debt to corporate banks.
This will allow the suicidal economics of constant indiscriminate irresponsible economic growth, to change to economic growth limited to climate change mitigation growth only. Rebuilding the world for zero carbon energy as fast as possible would provide a great boost the world economy and employment. Other production has to be zero growth-developing a world industry of reuse and recycle.
Investment and financing in more fossil fuels has to be prohibited.
Since 1990 the richest 10% of the world’s population were responsible for 52% of the cumulative carbon emissions, while The poorest 50% (c.3.1 billion people) were responsible for just 7% of cumulative emissions (OXFAM)
This requires a large wealth GHG pollution tax
The natural gas industry is not a bridge to zero carbon because gas emits CO2 when burnt and the industry is a big methane emitter
Fossil fuels subsidies ($5.9 Trillion a year by IMF) are an unprecedented evil which for the survival of Humanity have to be terminated right away and shifted to non combustion energy development
Tax credits to GHG polluting fossil fuel industries (including carbon capture storage) cannot be permitted.
CO2 and long-lived, constantly emitted GHGs accumulate in the atmosphere, so have to (can) be totally replaced by conversions to non polluting sources-"less" or "lower" is not good enough for climate and ocean stabilization
Conversions include energy production, transport, food production/diet, construction (steel/concrete to wood)
Air transport should revert to water, and ships powered by compact fission reactors like the US Navy (for decades). Only essential air flights.
To stabilize climate and oceans GHG emissions drop to near zero (IPCC 2014)
Planned fossil fuel production by 2030 is more than double the 1.5C limit
45% than for 2°C (Production Gap report).
Only ZERO CARBON COMBUSTION can stabilize atmospheric CO2 (and ocean acidification), so fossil fuel extraction has to stop right away and be phased out fast (fossilfueltreaty)
Stop fossil fuel (and biomass) combustion in 10 yrs
A full-cost carbon pollution fee is required fast increasing to $200/tonne), at central source, and invested in non-combustion energy
Zero future discounting has to apply In matters of GHG pollution impacts
Make investment in zero carbon combustion energy tax deductible
The only non GHG polluting energy dense power source alternative to coal at present is nuclear fission, so fission plants cannot be closed (can be refurbished) and safe molten salt compact reactors produced in large numbers to replace industrial coal and natural gas.
Limiting to 2C requires very large, very long term removal of CO2 from the air
The only safe certain CO2 removal is by direct air extraction (DAC) that requires energy.
So there is no allowable carbon budget left to burn more fossil fuels
Net zero emissions and carbon neutral have to include zero fossil fuels and zero carbon combustion.
Net zero means no biomass burning, even assuming carbon capture and storage (CCS). CCS after decades of attempts and government financing remains unproven, so CCS (or promise of CCS) cannot possibly be an assumed mitigation
Carbon neutral, net zero, carbon offsetting and carbon trading are ways of delaying and avoiding emergency immediate slashing of emissions
Clearing forests is not net zero or carbon neutral, as clearing and burning emit forest floor and slash carbon, and it takes 25 years for a new forest to pull out carbon. Today when global emissions had to be declining, clear cutting forests is a carbon emitter.
Zero deforestation is required for de-carbonization (no clear cutting)
De-militarization with international peaceful co-operation is a pre-requisite for de-carbonization. Budgets expertise would be transferred for large mitigation and adaptation projects
The livestock/meat and dairy industry have to end for near zero methane and CO2 emissions (IPCC AR5) because cattle exhale methane and forests are cleared for pasture and cattle feed (CO2)
The world has to go vegan, the least GHG polluting, healthiest diet after all.
Highly potent long lasting F-gases (halocarbons) have to be eliminated.
Geo-engineering
Some CO2 has to be removed safely by direct air capture, but the feasible amount at best would be limited.
As catastrophe looms larger due to inaction, more attention from the science is being given to geo engineering planetary cooling. This is extremely dangerous to our future survival because it provides a false excuse for inaction on emissions. Obviously it cannot be resorted to in the absence of aggressive mitigation.
It cannot not mitigate catastrophic climate change, at best provide a short delay. There are two main reasons. Ocean acidification would continue, which alone can be catastrophic to life on land as well as in the oceans. Atmospheric GHGs would continue to accumulate in the atmosphere increasing the radiative heat forcing.
Problems with climate change science that tend to minimize the emergency
The IPCC
Other IPCC deficiencies arise because the Panel is compromised by government policy makers.
IPCC global warming model projections do not include these large source amplifying feedbacks are not , which has to be corrected.
Only ZERO CARBON COMBUSTION can stabilize atmospheric CO2 (and ocean acidification), so fossil fuel extraction has to stop right away and be phased out fast (fossilfueltreaty)
Stop fossil fuel (and biomass) combustion in 10 yrs
A full-cost carbon pollution fee is required fast increasing to $200/tonne), at central source, and invested in non-combustion energy
Zero future discounting has to apply In matters of GHG pollution impacts
Make investment in zero carbon combustion energy tax deductible
The only non GHG polluting energy dense power source alternative to coal at present is nuclear fission, so fission plants cannot be closed (can be refurbished) and safe molten salt compact reactors produced in large numbers to replace industrial coal and natural gas.
Limiting to 2C requires very large, very long term removal of CO2 from the air
The only safe certain CO2 removal is by direct air extraction (DAC) that requires energy.
So there is no allowable carbon budget left to burn more fossil fuels
Net zero emissions and carbon neutral have to include zero fossil fuels and zero carbon combustion.
Net zero means no biomass burning, even assuming carbon capture and storage (CCS). CCS after decades of attempts and government financing remains unproven, so CCS (or promise of CCS) cannot possibly be an assumed mitigation
Carbon neutral, net zero, carbon offsetting and carbon trading are ways of delaying and avoiding emergency immediate slashing of emissions
Clearing forests is not net zero or carbon neutral, as clearing and burning emit forest floor and slash carbon, and it takes 25 years for a new forest to pull out carbon. Today when global emissions had to be declining, clear cutting forests is a carbon emitter.
Zero deforestation is required for de-carbonization (no clear cutting)
De-militarization with international peaceful co-operation is a pre-requisite for de-carbonization. Budgets expertise would be transferred for large mitigation and adaptation projects
The livestock/meat and dairy industry have to end for near zero methane and CO2 emissions (IPCC AR5) because cattle exhale methane and forests are cleared for pasture and cattle feed (CO2)
The world has to go vegan, the least GHG polluting, healthiest diet after all.
Highly potent long lasting F-gases (halocarbons) have to be eliminated.
Geo-engineering
Some CO2 has to be removed safely by direct air capture, but the feasible amount at best would be limited.
As catastrophe looms larger due to inaction, more attention from the science is being given to geo engineering planetary cooling. This is extremely dangerous to our future survival because it provides a false excuse for inaction on emissions. Obviously it cannot be resorted to in the absence of aggressive mitigation.
It cannot not mitigate catastrophic climate change, at best provide a short delay. There are two main reasons. Ocean acidification would continue, which alone can be catastrophic to life on land as well as in the oceans. Atmospheric GHGs would continue to accumulate in the atmosphere increasing the radiative heat forcing.
Problems with climate change science that tend to minimize the emergency
The IPCC
Other IPCC deficiencies arise because the Panel is compromised by government policy makers.
IPCC global warming model projections do not include these large source amplifying feedbacks are not , which has to be corrected.
The IPCC procedures are in effect is fossil fuels biased. The IPCC assesses for probability but does not assess risk. Its single metric climate sensitivity of 3C is fatally flawed for the future. The consensus by unanimity of all scientists and polity makers results in under-estimates of harm. The IPCC makes no conclusions on dangers (claiming it can't make such "value judgments" and does not make recommendations (claiming it cannot be prescriptive"). The IPCC avoids the runaway scenario, the world now faces. The IPCC applies fossil fuels biased economics in its cost benefit calculations, still claiming mitigation is an economic cost.
National Academies presently mimic the IPCC, but are mandated to make up these deadly deficiencies to their governments
National Academies presently mimic the IPCC, but are mandated to make up these deadly deficiencies to their governments
Misleading minimizing aspects of climate science
The scientists statement that stopping all GHG emissions does not result in a further temperature increase is policy misleading. From the time the world decides to reverse today's increasing global emissions, it takes a long time for stabilization. Global temperature and impacts continues to increase at a slowly reducing rate, due to socio-economic- technological lags and climate system lags. James Hansen has put both of these roughly at another 0.6C. Another 1.2C is unavoidable and the emergency is far worse than assumed. The IPCC further minimizes the situation by only taking model projections to 2100, while global warming lasts many hundreds of years. The unmasking of ignored heat from fossil fuel air pollution cooling aerosols, adds more temperature increase because fossil fuel energy has to end.
CLIMATE EMERGENCY INSTITUTE
The Health And Human Rights Approach to Greenhouse Gas pollution
