In the present international situation there is no sign of global GHG emissions being reversed (into decline).
The only world plan on GHG emissions is
to keep them increasing, which can only leads to the collapse of agriculture, civilization and eventually an
uninhabitable planet- due to the many enormous sources of amplifying feedbacks.
Without a immediate emergency rapid reduction of global GHG emissions (universally recommended by the scientists) - the world is headed for planetary catastrophe.
We are absolutely committed (locked in) to warming of 1.5°C by 2030-2040 (IPCC AR5 WG2) and by today's atmospheric GHG levels the world is committed to long term eventual 'equilibrium' warming (long after 2100) of 2.0°C (IPCC AR5 WG1 12.5.2. page 1108). According to the 2019 atmospheric CO2 equivalent we are committed to 2.6C
o Refugees: Most ever UNHCR 2018 An unprecedented 65.6 million people around the world have been forced from home. Among them are nearly 22.5 million refugees, over half of whom are under the age of 18. Climate change is projected to increase and accelerate this human population emergency.
o International Energy Agency's 2018 first Global Energy and CO2 Status Report – reporte another record high year for energy related CO2 emissions, 1.7% higher by 2016. Global energy consumption grew by 2.1% in 2017, more than twice the growth rate in 2016. Global energy in 2017 reached an estimated 14 050 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe), compared with 10 035 Mtoe in 2000.
o NOAA AGGI Greenhouse Gas Index Spring 2018. Through 2017 we’ve turned up the warming influence by 41% since 1990. It took ~240 years for the AGGI (total heat increase) to go from 0 to 1, i.e., to reach 100%, and 26 years for it to increase by another 41%. Atmospheric CO2 equivalent 419 ppm (includes methane and nitrous oxide as well as CO2)
o NOAA atmospheric CO2 2018 is408 ppm (seasonally adjusted mean) and accelerating.
o 10 Nov 2016 All of nature Climate change already dramatically disrupting all elements of natureo 2018 WMO Global temperature increase for 2017 was 1.1C, the warmest not influenced by an El Niño event.
o WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin Oct 2017 Atmospheric CO2 is increasing faster than it ever has (past 40 million years). 'The rate of increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) over the past 70 years is nearly 100 times larger than that at the end of the last ice age. As far as direct and proxy observations can tell, such abrupt changes in the atmospheric levels of CO2 have never before been seen'.
o 14 Nov 2016 IEA Energy, Climate Change and Environment: 2016 Insights. National emissions targets means global emissions of energy sourced GHGs will increase 30% by 2030.
o 2 May 2016 UN Climate Secreatriat Update of INDCs:global emissions will be 16% higher in 2030
o 14 Nov 2016 World Bank Disasters Force 26 Million People into Poverty and Cost $520bn/ year
o August 2015 ECONOMIC EMERGENCY a report by Citibank The cost of progressing to a low carbon economy is cheaper than an ‘Inaction’ fossil fuel scenario. Climate damage costs of 1.5°C by 2100 and our heading today of 4.5°C warming scenarios are $50 trillion. Even a 2.5°C warming costs $30 trillion less than a business-as-usual high global warming scenario.o Food security: Climate change is already having a negative impact on most of the worlds main agricultural regions (IPCC AR5 WG2). These trends can only increase under increasing climate change. o No climate mitigation agreement As things are (2018) there is no progress for a new binding global climate agreement at and since the Dec 2015 UN Paris Climate Conference. There will be will be no new measures on reducing global GHG emissions till after 2020. The Paris Agreement is only ‘intended' and voluntary’ called INDCs (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions).
o 2017 combined INDCs have the world headed for a 3.2C warming by 2100 (Climate Action Tracker) which is a full eventual equilibrium increase of over 5C long after 2100.
o The rate of global temperature increase is at least 10X higher than anything in the past 65 million years .o All world economic and energy plans are to keep the world economy on fossil fuels and keep increasing their output. o There is no plan to impose a GHG pollution or carbon tax on large central polluters- without which nothing will change on energy.
o Global emissions of all main GHGs are increasing faster than ever see StateofOurClimte.como The international Energy Agency reports we are fixed on an emissions track to at least a 6C warming by 2100and new fossil fuel investment and construction is locking us in to high temperatures.o A 2012 Price Waterhouse Cooper analysis says the same Green growth stalling in India and China, sending world towards 6C of warming.o Atmospheric GHG concentrations are all increasing.o Since 2007 atmospheric methane (86 X CO2) is increasing in part due to feedback emissions from the warming planet (tropical and subarctic peatlands). Feedback has started to add to atmospheric GHG levelso The world economy has the world fixed on the worst case high emissions scenario that leads to a totally catastrophic global heating of over 5°C by 2100, a warming that would keep increasing for many centuries and last thousands of years.
o The melting of Greenland and almost all glaciers is increasing, due to today’s global warming.
o Greenland melting is accelerating.o The danger limit to agriculture, planetary ecosystems, ice sheets and Arctic methane feedback emissions is 1°C, not 2°C (James Hansen, EU science group 2C Target 2008, World Bank 4°C report 2012) IPCC 2007).
o The Arctic temperature is increasing rapidly - warming over double the rest of our planet and in some regions over 3X.
o The rapid melt (at today's warming) of the cooling Arctic summer sea ice extent has passed its ice free Arctic tipping point (2007) which will increase Arctic warming and the extreme weather with climate disruption affecting the N hemisphereo All Arctic sources of carbon methane (CH4) are emitting methane due to Arctic warming- i.e. subarctic wetland peat, thawing permafrost and sub sea floor frozen solid methane gas hydrate.
o Thawing Arctic permafrost is emitting CO2 and nitrous oxide (300 X CO2), as well as methane.
o 2013 research in Siberian permafrost caves show there is an irreversible permafrost thaw tipping point of 1.5C or less.
o Destabilized venting East Siberian Arctic shelf methane hydrate and subsea floor methane is a risk for planetary catastrophe.
o Arctic methane concentration has reached 1900 ppb – the 800,000 year ice core methane limit is 800 ppb
o Cooling Far North and Arctic spring-summer snow cover is receding faster.
o Extreme weather events are increasing globally an drought regionally (IPCC AR5 2014 WG2)o Extreme weather events with episodic extreme regional heat drought and flooding have affected the N hemisphere since 2000- driven to global climate change.
o Continued GHG emissions on top of our already committed (locked in warming) of several times today's warming, can only lead to added global warming from carbon feedback emissions (methane & CO2) in an amount that would devastate our planet rendering it unable to sustain agriculture and eventually uninhabitable.
o Accelerating ocean surface warming is killing warm water corals world wide. 50% of the Great Barrier Reef is dead. o The oceans are absorbing most of the GHG emissions' and the heat is now affecting the deep ocean.
This is leading to deep open deoxygenated ocean zones. o. There has been a 40% drop in ocean phytoplanktono The oceans have absorbed 30% of the CO2 emissions acidifying them faster than the past 300 million years.
This harms coral and other ocean species.
o Ocean heating is accelerating and becomes a carbon feedback as ocean get warmer (absorb less CO2)
climate change planetary emergency situation
The overwhelming list of reasons
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