Emissions Projections
Dr Peter Carter's 2012 climate change commitment paper for the International
Climate Change
Impacts and Responses conference and journal.​ ​


The health and human rights approach to climate change​​​
Under the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change nations are obligated to limit their emissions to keep atmospheric greenhouse gas conctrations at safe levels. 

​​Article 2 Objective

The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.

​2. The developed country Parties  commit themselves specifically as provided for in the following:

​​(a) Each of these Parties shall adopt national policies and take corresponding measures on the mitigation of climate change, by limiting its anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and protecting and enhancing its greenhouse gas sinks and reservoirs. These policies and measures will demonstrate that developed countries are taking the lead in modifying longer-term trends in anthropogenic emissions consistent with the objective of the Convention

​​​Now in 2017 nations that have large emissions have not complied with these obligations. 

Under the 2015 UN Paris Agreement ​​the danger level of global surface warming was put at 1.5C from the old (1996) catastrophic 2C.
Emissions were made non binding national emissions targets called INDCs (intended natiomnally determined contributions).
​It appears that the longstanding 2C equilibrium warming limit is being as only a limit 2100, making  1.5C even more vital for our common future survival.

​​The combined INDCs (both unconditional and conditional) were projected by a May 2016 Update by the UN Climate Secretariat to result in a global emissions INCREASE of 16% by 2030 (see below).

The most recent projection of the temperature increase from national emissions tagerts is from Climate Interactive (March 2017)
that projects a 3.3C warmimng by 2100, which is 5.5C equilibrium warming long after 2100.​​​



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The IPCC 2014 5th assessment projected that glbal emissions must be declining betweeen 2015 to 2020 at the latest to avoid ctastrophic global climate change.


​​​​The 2007 4th assessmernt had the same recommendation, that global emissions must have by 2015 at the very latest to avoid going above 2C.